Probability and Contracts. About Roberto Torretti's Pragmatism

David Teira


I want to expand the pragmatist view of probability advocated by Roberto Torretti, drawing on the propensity approach. In the first part, I will show how the concept of mathematical expectation originally formalized an Aristotelian principle of justice. In the second half, I will present the game-theoretic approach to probability developed by Shafer and Vovk, showing how it allows us to interpret the original normativity of mathematical expectations. I will finally discuss how this latter view contributes to a pragmatist understanding of probability, as Torretti advocates, although with broader foundations than the physical symmetries of standard propensities.


Probability; propensity; contracts; mathematical expectation; Torretti


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