Family Remittances and COVID-19: Efficiency in Forecasting to Reduce Speculation in the Central American Region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22370/pe.2021.11.2888Keywords:
family remittances, forecast, macroeconomics, Central America, ARIMAAbstract
This research applies an adequate forecasting method to the remittance flows that were affected from the crisis generated by COVID-19 in the Central American region, with the aim to provide a reference tool to prioritize forecasting efficiency criteria and thus contribute to reduce the uncertainty of the monetary authorities, the investors and the economic agents, facilitating the decision-making process.
By applying the forecast model suggested for each country in the region, there was a minimum margin of error, both in the absolute value in monetary units and in relative terms as a function of the percentages of the difference between the estimate and the real value that in average amounted to 8.4% corresponding to less than one standard deviation.
It is intended to show that in addition to other macroeconomic variables compromised by the COVID-19 situation, remittances continue to be a resilient income stream.
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